FAS forecasts the overall Australian cherry crop to drop 15 percent in 2026/27 to 18,740 short tons, down from approximately 22,050 short tons in 2025/26. The production squeeze is also set to reverberate across international supply chains, driving a projected 18 percent decline in export volumes, the document warns.
Australian cherries: A tale of two microclimates
The main culprit behind the reduction is a lack of winter “chill hours,” the critical temperature threshold between 36 degrees Fahrenheit and 54 degrees Fahrenheit required during tree dormancy to ensure uniform bud break and strong fruit set. Cherry trees typically require upwards of 800 chilling hours.
While growers in major mainland hubs such as Victoria’s Goulburn Valley and central eastern New South Wales (NSW) endured above-average minimum winter temperatures that directly reduced chill-hour accumulation, Tasmania was the exception. Positioned further south, the island state accumulated ample chilling units despite broader regional warming patterns.
“Tasmania has had a far more favorable start to the season,” noted Zeljko Biki, USDA FAS agricultural analyst in Canberra. “The combination of adequate winter chill hours, the prospect of below-average spring rainfall, and ample access to irrigation water supports a positive production outlook with high-quality fruit potential.”
In contrast, mainland growers are bracing for prolonged, uneven flowering. To mitigate the chill deficit, Victorian and NSW producers are increasingly resorting to chemical treatments designed to encourage uniform bud burst, adding input costs to a season already burdened by high tradable water prices.
Trade impact
During the mainland harvest from late October through January, early-season production regions in Queensland, NSW, South Australia, and Victoria typically supply the surge in domestic demand leading into Christmas.
With smaller crop loads and variable fruit sizes expected on the mainland this season, local retailers are likely to face tighter supply and higher wholesale prices, the assessment warns.
In contrast, the Tasmanian harvest runs from late December through mid-February. This late-season window aligns directly with peak festive buying in Asia, notably supporting Chinese New Year promotions across key markets including China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Singapore.
While overall national export availability will contract toward historical five-year averages, Tasmanian exporters are well-positioned to maintain their reputation for large-caliber, premium-grade fruit.
However, high freight rates and overall tight Australian supplies mean Asian importers should expect firm export pricing throughout the 2026/27 campaign.
To review the latest annual stone fruit report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), CLICK HERE.
