China’s cherry production is forecasted to reach 850,000 tons in the 2024-2025 season, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. However, drought in northern China, especially in Shandong, has affected late-maturing cherries. In Yantai, adverse weather conditions have reduced fruit size, but the overall production quality remains largely unaffected.
The USDA predicts continued growth in cherry production due to expanded acreage and increased yields. Central government policies regulate agricultural land use, stabilizing cherry acreage in traditional provinces like Liaoning and Shandong. Farmers are also planting more cherries in mountainous and western provinces, encouraged by good market returns. Additionally, there is rapid development of greenhouse cherry production in high-altitude and colder areas such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Tibet.
Local governments are providing subsidies for constructing rain shelters to protect cherries from adverse weather. In Shandong, a $10,417 per hectare subsidy is available for building these shelters. Growers are replacing older varieties with market-preferred ones such as Russian, Beauty Early, Qizao, Jiahong, Rainier, Black Pearl, and Brooks, favoring medium-early maturing varieties over late-maturing ones.
Domestic cherry quality has generally improved, with some able to compete with imported cherries. However, challenges persist, including inconsistent quality due to small-scale farming and the use of growth hormones. Cherry prices have dropped due to weak demand and increased supply. High-quality cherries maintain strong prices, while smaller fruit sizes have pressured prices down.
Chinese cherry imports are expected to grow, driven by increased supply from Chile. Chilean marketing efforts and chartered ships facilitate cherry movement, especially around the Lunar New Year. Imports from the U.S. are also expected to rise with higher production and better-sized fruits.
China’s cherry production is set to increase significantly, with continued expansion in acreage and yield improvements. However, weather conditions and market dynamics will play crucial roles in shaping the overall outcomes for growers and consumers.
Source: USDA
