A cherry season with unprecedented fruit volume is approaching, and one of the most solid estimates comes from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stone fruit report released on September 25. The study forecasts that global production will reach 5.4 million tonnes in 2026/27. This represents a 17% increase over the previous cycle and the highest figure on record. China, Turkey, the European Union, and Chile are the key drivers behind this surge.
China retains the top spot with 1.02 million tonnes. Turkey—which had lost a significant portion of its harvest to frost—returns to the top tier with 1 million tonnes, nearly two and a half times its 2025/26 output. Chile, the major Southern Hemisphere exporter, is projected to produce 727,000 tonnes.
More Cherries Moving Around the World
The USDA estimates that global trade in fresh cherries will grow by more than 15%, surpassing 900,000 tonnes. Chile is the central player, projected to export 650,000 tonnes—an increase of 80,000 tonnes over the previous season.
The primary destination market is also expanding; China is expected to import 560,000 tonnes (up 12%), driven by increased shipments from Chile. Having recovered, Turkey is set to see its exports jump from just 6,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes. The flip side of the situation is in the United States, where frosts hit both sweet and tart cherry crops, causing total production to fall by more than 20% to 317,000 tons. Sweet cherries alone are expected to lose around 60,000 tons, as a warm spring also disrupted harvest timing in California and Washington. U.S. exports are projected to drop nearly 25% to 62,000 tons; shipments had already fallen 32% in June and July.
What this means for Patagonia
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report does not cover Argentina, nor is the country mentioned among key market players. However, considering the weather events experienced in Río Negro’s Middle Valley last year, the relevant figures come from the 2024–2025 season: Argentine cherry production for that season was estimated at around 8,600 tons, marking a significant volume and an all-time export record of over 8,000 tons.
Yet, the landscape outlined by the USDA is highly relevant to Patagonian cherries. Chile and Argentina produce during the same counter-season and enter the global market within the same window—between November and February. The fact that its neighbor is adding 80,000 tons to its export volume—with China absorbing the bulk of that growth—foreshadows a season of intense competition for the same buyers.
In the Northern Hemisphere, Turkey’s recovery and the U.S. decline are reshaping supply dynamics for June and July.
More peaches and nectarines, too
The same report projects a 5% increase in global peach and nectarine production, reaching 25 million tons, with China leading by a wide margin at 17.3 million tons. Türkiye would nearly double its harvest to 1.2 million tons, and global trade would rise by 10% to one million tons.
Source: Más Producción
