The international cherry market is experiencing one of its most challenging periods in recent years. With just days left in 2025, prices in the main export destinations maintain a marked downward trend that has not only solidified during the last two weeks of the year, but, according to various reports from specialized consulting firms, could intensify at the start of 2026.

Data from China, Europe, the United States, and Latin America show a common dynamic: increasing supply pressure that, at least for now, is not finding sufficient demand to absorb the volumes arriving in the markets. This phenomenon, which combines structural and cyclical factors, once again highlights the challenges facing the cherry industry globally, and particularly Chile, the world’s leading supplier of this product.

The main cause of the price drop is clear and widely agreed upon by analysts: there are more cherries available in destination markets. This increased supply is primarily due to a diversification process within Chile’s export portfolio, which in recent years has expanded both its total volume and its sales window. Chile remains the dominant player in the market, and any changes in its production and logistics strategy directly impact international prices.

Added to this is a second key element: the growing presence of early-season cherries. This season, markets began receiving fruit earlier than usual, leading to an earlier supply and an accumulation of volumes that, at times, exceeded the market’s absorption capacity.

This imbalance between supply and demand has resulted in a price correction that, according to reports from various consulting firms specializing in the international cherry trade, averages 25% year-on-year, with particularly severe situations in the Chinese market, where drops of up to 50% have been observed.

China: The cherry business’s thermometer
China is not only the main destination for Chilean cherries, but also the market that sets the pulse of the business globally. What happens there often anticipates trends that are later replicated, with different nuances, in other destinations.

The data is compelling. As seen in the records for week 51, average prices in the Chinese market were 40% lower than the same period in 2024 and nearly 60% lower than in 2023. This analysis corresponds, in particular, to averages for the Santina variety, one of the most representative at the beginning of the season.

The magnitude of the drop is unprecedented in recent times and highlights a profound change in market dynamics. Cherries have ceased to be a scarce product during certain key weeks and have become, at least temporarily, an abundant product, with strong segmentation by quality.

While China is the focus of attention, other markets are also showing significant adjustments. In Germany, taking the Hamburg market as a benchmark, the price drop reaches 15% compared to average FOT (Free On Truck/Rail) export values. This indicator reflects the value of the cherries loaded onto the truck or train at the point of origin, including all costs up to that point, but excluding insurance and international freight.

In the Netherlands, another key market in Europe, wholesale prices registered a year-on-year decrease of 9%, confirming that supply pressure is not a phenomenon exclusive to Asia.

In Latin America, the São Paulo market in Brazil showed a 15% correction in wholesale prices. This is particularly significant considering that the season began with very attractive prices, generating expectations that were subsequently not met by the increased volume available.

The United States, for its part, also reflects a downward trend. In this case, the average values ​​correspond to Shipping Point prices, equivalent to FOB origin, which shows that the pressure is felt even before the fruit completes its logistics chain.

It is clear that these are all average values, which may vary depending on the quality and variety of the product being offered, but what is being highlighted here are trends.

China snapshot
Looking at the evolution of the Chinese market and the immediate challenges facing Chilean producers, a document presented by Agustín Cornejo, founder of QC Fruits, provides key data to understand the magnitude of the problem.

During week 51, approximately 1,500 containers of cherries were traded in China, with an average price of US$8.10 per kilo. According to Cornejo, during that period the quality and condition of the fruit remained relatively stable, which facilitated sales and allowed for the placement of virtually the entire available volume.

However, the real challenge began in week 52, when the market had to absorb a total of 4,300 containers, representing a 180% jump compared to the previous week. And the outlook ahead is no more encouraging: the first week of January is expected to see the arrival of another 4,000 containers, followed by week two with approximately 3,500 additional containers.

Although the volume will gradually decrease, Cornejo warns that it remains extremely high for the expected level of demand, especially after the end-of-year holidays.

Christmas and the Chinese New Year historically act as a market buffer. In week 52, these holidays helped boost sales and offered a temporary advantage at a time of peak fruit supply.

However, this effect is transitory. According to the analysis by the head of QC Fruits, the first week of January is usually particularly challenging. The market slows down, retailers reduce their activity, and, in addition, there are remaining fruit stocks that went unsold during December. This scenario makes January the most challenging period of the 2025-2026 season, with a combination of high supply, lower demand, and increasing pressure on prices.

Quality: the factor that defines winners and losers
Another key point that emerges from this report is the widening gap between premium and average fruit. Luna Yao, an executive at the importer Fujian Sanvirtue, noted that the quality of cherries arriving in China in recent weeks was inconsistent.

While premium fruit fetched better prices and saw smoother turnover, medium and lower-quality lots faced greater difficulties. Problems such as pitting, soft fruit, and even some cases of rot began to appear more frequently, directly impacting sales.

Yao confirmed that the market adjusted prices as soon as the larger volume began arriving in week 52, a trend that continues. Although the holidays helped sustain demand, the expectation is that, once this period is over, prices for average fruit will fall again.

The Santina variety, which dominates much of the early supply, faces a particularly complex scenario in its late stage. According to analysts, the quality of these Santina cherries will not be ideal for storage, limiting commercial management options and increasing the urgency to sell.

In contrast, the Lapins variety appears to be the key factor defining the rest of the season. Its performance in terms of quality, condition, and market acceptance will be crucial in determining whether prices stabilize or if the downward trend deepens further.

A year-end with warning signs
Ultimately, the international cherry market is closing out 2025 with clear warning signs. Week 52 stands out as the most challenging period, with the highest weekly volume of the entire season and an average quality lower than that of previous arrivals.

The data shows that only premium fruit managed to sell completely and maintain relatively stable prices, while the rest was exposed to steep discounts and the possibility of not being sold immediately.

With a January marked by uncertainty, high volumes, and weakened demand, the export industry faces a scenario that demands urgent strategic adjustments. Quality management, market segmentation, and more precise shipment planning appear as key factors for navigating a season that, far from having bottomed out, could still see further price corrections in early 2026.

Source: Más Producción