This forecast is due to climate challenges, a continued decline in cultivated acreage, and an aging agricultural workforce.

Fresh cherry production in Japan for 2025/2026 is estimated at 12,500 metric tons (MT). Although this represents an 8.7% increase over the previous year’s “historically poor” harvest, it is still 25% below the annual average. The main cause of this low production was high temperatures during the pollination period in Yamagata Prefecture, which accounts for more than 76% of national production.

Due to this limited local production, demand for US cherries is expected to remain strong throughout the 2025/2026 season. Japanese consumers primarily consume fresh cherries, and imported US cherries are often referred to as “American cherries.” However, declining disposable income and the weakening yen have made Japanese consumers more price-sensitive. Total fresh cherry imports are expected to decline 10.5% to 4,300 MT by 2025/2026.

• Main varieties: The main varieties grown in Japan are Sato Nishiki (about 75%) and Beni Shuho (about 16%).
• Challenges for farmers: Cherry growers face issues such as an aging workforce, rising material costs, and the need to use expensive shelters to protect the fruit from rain.

Peaches and Nectarines: Decrease in Production and Exports
Total peach and nectarine production in Japan for 2025/2026 is forecast at 101,000 MT, representing an 8.9% decrease from the previous year. Although the number of fruits harvested is expected to be similar, the total weight will decrease by approximately 10% due to high temperatures and low rainfall in the main production areas.

• Decrease in Consumption: Domestic consumption of peaches and nectarines is also expected to decrease by 8.6% to 99,450 MT, as a result of lower production. Overall fruit consumption is declining, especially among young people, partly due to rising prices.
• Trade: Although Japan seeks to increase its peach exports, a 22% decrease in export volume is projected for 2025/2026 due to reduced production. The main export destinations are Hong Kong and Taiwan. Imports of fresh peaches from the United States are not permitted in Japan due to quarantine reasons. However, US nectarines maintain a 100% market share in Japan.

Source: Fruits from Chile